Six Trends for CFOs in 2025: Walking the Tightrope Between Policy and Market

In 2025, CFOs will walk a tightrope alongside President-elect Donald Trump and Federal Reserve officials—seeking balance under the dual pressures of policy and markets.

Federal Reserve policymakers have cut interest rates by a total of 1 percentage point since September, aiming to boost the labor market and avoid a recession. However, with inflation still above the 2% target, they must be wary ofa rebound in price pressures in 2025.

After winning a second presidential term by tapping into public discontent over rising prices, Trump has promised two policies that could stoke inflation: sweeping tariffs and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants.

Additionally, in the name of innovation and free markets, Trump has hinted at loosening regulations in areas such as cryptocurrency, even though this could lead to excessive risk-taking and financial turmoil.

Meanwhile, CFOs face pressure to leverage artificial intelligence for competitive advantage while ensuring this rapidly evolving technology delivers high returns. They also need to meet growing demands to expand operational and strategic skills without neglecting core responsibilities such as budgeting and capital allocation.

Finance executives can get ahead in 2025 by focusing on the following six major federal policy and business strategy trends:

1. Tariffs: 'The most beautiful word'

Trump has promised to impose tariffs of at least 10% on Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico. Economists and trade experts point out that this could lead to higher consumer prices, increased import costs for U.S. businesses, and trigger multi-front trade wars.

Trump disagrees, saying tariffs will help create jobs, boost investment, and increase fiscal revenue, thereby reducing the budget deficit.

"I believe very strongly in tariffs: I think it's the most beautiful word," Trump said in a December 8 interview on "Meet the Press." "It's going to make us rich."

Some businesses are pushing back strongly. Executives at Walmart, Lowe's, and Stanley Black & Decker have said they will respond to higher import costs byraising prices.

In fact, according to data from the Tax Policy Center, Trump's campaign proposals of a 20% global tariff and a 60% tariff on China would cost U.S. households an average of nearly $3,000 in additional taxes next year and reduce imports by $9 trillion over a decade.

Lee Branstetter, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University, says CFOs need to plan for a range of possible outcomes and prepare for the worst-case scenario. Many CFOs may delay investments to limit risk.

"We have a president who will basically set tariff policy arbitrarily," Branstetter said in an interview. "Tariffs can be imposed arbitrarily, modified arbitrarily, canceled arbitrarily, restored arbitrarily—so, Mr. CFO, try to plan around that."

2. Financial Regulation: Less 'Nanny-State' Oversight

Lawyers and former SEC officials say that under the Trump administration, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will take a more lenient approach compared to the relatively strict financial regulation under the Biden administration.

On a range of issues from cryptocurrency market regulation to cybersecurity risk disclosure, Trump's SEC nominee Paul Atkins may focus more on working with investors, market makers, and securities issuers than current Chair Gary Gensler.

"Their approach will be very different," said Dave Brown, a lawyer at Alston & Bird. Atkins will emphasize facilitating capital formation while ensuring "safe and efficient capital markets."

Speaking of Atkins, Brown said: "I don't think he'll be as much of a 'nanny.'"

For example, Atkins may shelve the climate risk disclosure rule, which requires companies to disclose the impact of climate change on their financials, operations, and business strategy. The SEC weakened the rule this year, then approved it, but faced legal challenges andshelved it。

Under Trump, the SEC may also abandon Gensler's efforts to regulate crypto assets as securities, providing more room for innovation but also increasing investor risk.

In another adjustment that could increase risk, the SEC may scale back enforcement, moving away from sweeping actions such as sanctions on multiple Wall Street firms for failing to prevent employees from using unofficial communication channels, lawyers and former SEC staff said.

"You'll see more rational, targeted SEC enforcement," Brown said.

3. The Fed's 'Very, Very Careful Policy'

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces the prospect of inflation remaining above the 2% target in the new year, partly due to Trump's proposed policies.

Trump's planned tariffs could trigger retaliatory measures from trading partners, pushing up import prices. Mass deportation of undocumented immigrants could restrict labor supply and drive up wages.

Given stubborn price pressures, Fed officials in theirmedian projectionsreleased on December 18 postponed the timeline for successfully bringing inflation down to target from this year to next year.

Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, said in an interview that Powell may get little help from Congress and Trump in controlling inflation.

"I doubt Congress is focused on the inflationary effects of fiscal policy," he said. Meanwhile, Trump will "argue that his tariffs are good for everyone and inflation won't be a problem," Sonola said.

Fitch Ratings expects economic growth to slow from a peak of 3% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025.

However, even with a cooling economy, the possibility of tariffs and other factors has led Fitch to raise its 2025 consumer price index forecast from 2.4% to 2.8%, Sonola said.

The Fed "will be very, very careful this year," he predicted, saying policymakers won't change the federal funds rate before May and will make only two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025.

"You're entering a very, very murky forecasting area," Sonola said, specifically pointing to uncertainty over Trump's stance on import taxes and immigration.

4. Seeking the 'CFO+'

Josh Crist, co-managing partner at executive search firm Crist Kolder Associates, says many companies seeking new finance chiefs in 2025 will prefer candidates with "CFO+" qualities—those who possess operational and strategic skills in addition to financial expertise.

"We're starting to see a generation of CFOs who have proven themselves to senior leadership and boards," Crist said in an interview. "They can take on more, and they're being given more."

New operational responsibilities include technology implementation and supply chain management, Crist said. They are also more deeply involved in business strategy and investor communications, said Jim Lawson, co-leader of the CFO practice at executive search and leadership consulting firm Russell Reynolds Associates, in an interview.

CFOs who are savvy incompany operationsare especially attractive when vying for the CEO role, said Jenna Fisher, co-leader of the CFO practice at Russell Reynolds.

In fact, a Russell Reynolds survey found that a majority of CFOs plan to ask for more responsibilities within the next three years.

As CFOs take on more duties, many finance departments are experiencing a "layering effect," with companies hiring additional talent for roles like vice president of finance to handle work previously managed directly by the CFO, Crist said.

Many CFOs are also deviating from the traditional path to the top finance job. According to Russell Reynolds, only 34% of CFOs at S&P 500 companies are CPAs. Moreover, the proportion of CFOs with CPA credentials is declining, Fisher and Crist said.

"I can't remember the last time a large public company required us to note in the job requirements that a CPA certificate must be held," Crist said.

5. AI Investment Returns: Dream or Illusion

In the new year, CFOs will face sustained pressure to both leverage AI for competitive advantage and ensure the technology delivers substantial returns on investment, analysts say.

AI innovation may continue at a breakneck pace, compounding the challenges faced by many executives who feel they arefailingin AI adoption.

"2025 will bring a critical shift in AI, moving from the rapid growth and hype of recent years to a more pragmatic, grounded phase," said Assaf Melochna, co-founder of New York-based AI company Aquant, in an email.

As software vendors like Microsoft and Salesforce roll out AI agents capable of tasks such as fraud detection and financial data reconciliation, a new type of generative AI application is emerging.

According toDeloitte research, a quarter of companies currently using generative AI may deploy AI agents in 2025, and that proportion could rise to half by 2027.

Meanwhile, global IT spending is projected tosurge 9.3% to $5.74 trillion in 2025, driven primarily by AI demand, according to Gartner forecasts.

Melochna predicts that both sellers and users of AI will shift their focus to practical solutions in 2025.

"The conversation will no longer center on flashy jargon but on solving real-world challenges—closing the learning gap, overcoming deployment hurdles, and delivering measurable outcomes," he said.

6. Navigating the Accountant Shortage

Despite industry efforts to expand the talent pool, the shortage of qualified accountants and the associated risk of errors may persist in 2025, accounting experts say.

As a result, CFOs looking to expand their teams may struggle in 2025 to attract candidates from the currently smaller pool of qualified accountants who can produce accurate and timely financial reports.

"We've already seen the impact of the broken talent pipeline on the accounting quality of audited companies, so in my view, it's only a matter of time before a lack of qualified personnel leads to audit failures," said Jack Castonguay, associate professor of public accounting at Hofstra University, in an email.

The strain from the talent shortage is evident, Castonguay noted, as companies includingTupperwareandAdvance Auto Partshave cited staff turnover or a lack of qualified accounting personnel as reasons for missed deadlines and other issues in SEC filings.

Omar Roubi, an accounting lecturer at the University of Colorado Denver, says companies offering good pay and benefits may attract the best talent, while others can limit error risk by increasing training spending.

Some employers "may not be able to hire as many people on the staffing side, but they have other levers they can pull to ensure high-quality financial reporting," Roubi said in an email.

Meanwhile, "fewer and less experienced staff only increases the likelihood of reporting errors and deficiencies," he said.