Risk Management
US and EU Reach 'Framework' Agreement to Lower Most Tariffs to 15%
US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced at a joint briefing on Sunday that the two sides have reached a trade 'framework' agreement, planning to set a uniform tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods exported to the US, covering automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. The EU has committed to buying $750 billion in US energy over three years and investing $600 billion in the US. Details of the agreement are still to be finalized, and the final implementation timeline has not been specified.
Fed: Trump's High Tariffs Surge Trade Compliance Costs for Businesses
The latest Federal Reserve research indicates that the high tariffs implemented by the Trump administration will significantly increase U.S. businesses' trade compliance costs, with estimated new costs accounting for 1.4% to 2.5% of product value, and total annual costs for the manufacturing sector potentially ranging from $39 billion to $71 billion. The study emphasizes that complex rules of origin and administrative burdens are the main drivers of rising costs, and warns that actual costs could be even higher.
SEC Does Not Explicitly Commit to Maintaining Climate Disclosure Rule If It Wins Lawsuit
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals to continue hearing and rule on the consolidated lawsuit against its climate risk disclosure rule. In a status report filed on July 23, the agency stated it currently has no intention to review or reconsider the rule, but did not explicitly commit to maintaining and enforcing it if challengers lose.
EY: US IPO count in H1 2025 up 35% year-on-year, fundraising down 9%
According to the latest EY report, despite tariff policy adjustments and stock market volatility, the number of US IPOs in the first half of 2025 still increased by 35% year-on-year to 109, a new high for the same period since 2021; however, total fundraising was $17.1 billion, down 9% from the same period last year. The report states that the global IPO outlook is 'cautiously optimistic,' but a full recovery still depends on key conditions such as trade frameworks, monetary policy, and geopolitical situations.
The Conference Board: Tariffs to Weigh on Consumption and Economic Growth in the Second Half of the Year
The Conference Board released a report on Monday stating that U.S. economic growth will slow in the second half of 2025, mainly due to tariffs raising goods prices and weakening consumer confidence. Although the likelihood of a recession is low, GDP growth is expected to decline noticeably from 2024 levels, with an estimated growth of 1.6% this year. The Yale Budget Lab calculates that tariffs will increase the average American household's annual spending by $2,800 and push up the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points.
JLL Report: Office Workstation Area May Further Shrink, Companies Shift to Shared and Compact Designs
Global commercial real estate services firm JLL released the '2025 Global Space Planning Benchmark Report', indicating that although most companies strengthened return-to-office requirements at the beginning of the year, office space configurations are trending toward compactness: the target area per person has been reduced to 132 square feet, the proportion of shared workstations has increased, and the standard sizes of enclosed offices and open-plan workstations have simultaneously shrunk to balance costs and hybrid work demands.
Consumer confidence edges up, inflation expectations fall to 4.4%
The University of Michigan's July survey shows consumer confidence rose to a five-month high, with one-year inflation expectations dropping from 5% to 4.4%, but household financial expectations remain weak. There is division within the Federal Reserve over whether to cut rates this month, with the persistent impact of tariffs on inflation being a key variable.
Powell writes to Vought in defense of Fed renovation projects
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wrote to OMB Director Vought on Thursday in response to accusations of "serious mismanagement" in the renovation of Federal Reserve buildings. Powell stated that the projects involve two historic buildings from the 1930s that have never undergone comprehensive renovation. Meanwhile, White House officials have used the project as a focal point to question Powell's suitability for his role, while potential successor Kevin Warsh has called for a "regime change" at the Fed.
June retail sales rebound 0.6%, consumer concerns over tariffs and employment fail to curb spending
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in June, reversing the previous two months' declines, but consumer confidence remains weak. San Francisco Fed President Daly, New York Fed President Williams, and Fed Governor Kugler all warned that tariffs could push up inflation and weigh on spending, with GDP growth expected to slow to around 1% this year.
Tariff costs passed on to consumers, U.S. inflation rate rises to 2.7% in June
The U.S. inflation rate rose to 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in the previous month, mainly driven by businesses passing tariff costs on to consumers. Imported goods prices led the increase, with clothing, household goods, and appliance prices rising 0.4%, 1%, and 1.9%, respectively. The report reinforced the Federal Reserve's stance on holding interest rates steady, but Trump and some Fed officials are divided over rate cuts.