Core Data: Divergence Between Deal Count and Fundraising Amounts

A latest report released by EY shows that the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the United States reached 109 in the first half of 2025, up 35% from the same period in 2024. Although this figure marks the highest number of IPOs in the first half of a year since 2021, the total fundraising amount has declined—raising a combined $17.1 billion in the first half, down 9% year-over-year.

Market Background: Heightened Policy Uncertainty and Volatility

The report notes that in the first six months of 2025, unusually high policy uncertainty caused notable disruptions in the stock market. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, swung sharply between 14.8 and 52.3, with a range five times wider than in the same period in 2024.

EY stated in the report: "Amid uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, this heightened volatility is prompting companies to reassess their exit strategies, choosing to remain private for longer periods or to pursue listings with smaller free floats."

Adjustments by the Trump administration in trade, regulatory, immigration, and fiscal policies have also led Federal Reserve policymakers to hold off on lowering borrowing costs, pending an assessment of the potential impact of these changes on inflation, employment, and financial markets.

The Link Between Volatility and IPO Activity

EY emphasized: "Market volatility is a key barometer of IPO activity." Volatility reflects investor expectations of future price movements and directly influences market sentiment, valuation multiples, and the public market's receptiveness to new offerings. Higher volatility typically signals increased risk aversion, posing challenges for companies planning to go public.

However, the report also points out that global capital markets appear to be gradually adapting to political and geopolitical shocks this year, providing support for an improved IPO outlook. EY stated: "Trade tariffs, regional conflicts, and macroeconomic policy uncertainty—factors that once triggered volatility—are increasingly being priced into asset valuations, and investors and companies are adapting to what many see as the 'new normal.'"

Signs of Market Recovery and Regional Performance

After the turbulence in the early part of the first half of 2025, stock markets have rebounded, and the VIX and other "fear gauges" have stabilized. EY observed that companies launching IPOs are turning their attention to markets with deep capital pools, such as Hong Kong. Additionally, as concerns over tariffs and economic fragility ease, IPO activity in the United States, Canada, and Latin America accelerated toward the end of the second quarter.

In terms of returns, EY data shows that U.S. IPOs rose an average of 20% on their first trading day; offerings that raised at least $50 million achieved an overall return of 40% by the end of the second quarter.

Industry Perspective: Cautious Optimism for the Second Half

Rachel Gerring, EY's Americas IPO Leader, said in a statement that five of the ten largest IPOs occurred in June 2025. She said: "This indicates that companies intending to go public are actively preparing and demonstrating increasing flexibility to seize market opportunities as they arise." She added: "With this renewed momentum, and assuming broader economic indicators remain stable, we remain optimistic about the remainder of 2025."

Outlook: Full Recovery Still Depends on Multiple Conditions

In its report summary, EY noted that the global IPO outlook "remains cautiously optimistic," supported by a solid pipeline of large offerings and a steady flow of smaller deals. However, the report also emphasized: "A broad recovery in global IPO activity will critically depend on cooperative trade frameworks, accommodative monetary policy, controlled inflation, and an easing of geopolitical tensions."