Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. President, and the policy direction of his administration, will profoundly shape the trajectory of the payments industry, from stablecoin regulation to earned wage access (EWA) policy to federal antitrust priorities.

The payments landscape is undergoing rapid transformation, and the laws and regulatory policies enacted by the new administration will shape the environment for digital payments and cryptocurrency innovation, with both positive and negative implications. At the same time, the new administration will also act as an arbiter in the competitive landscape between emerging fintech companies like Stripe and Block and traditional giants like Visa and Amazon.

CFPB Policy May See Major Shift

During the Biden administration, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), under Director Rohit Chopra, took an aggressive regulatory stance toward emerging digital payment tools. However, with the change in administration, the CFPB may alter its strategy. Typically, appointed officials like Chopra leave before or shortly after a new president takes office.

John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute, noted that Trump may not be able to directly dismantle the CFPB—unless authorized by Congress—but he can steer the agency to "focus on different matters or weaken its enforcement capabilities." Diamond added that a new president could achieve this by appointing a director who delays enforcement or selectively enforces rules.

Interpretive Rules May Face Reversal

Chopra's team had pushed for regulatory guardrails on emerging payment services such as buy now, pay later (BNPL) and earned wage access. In May 2024, the CFPB issued an interpretive rule requiring BNPL providers to comply with consumer protection regulations applicable to credit card companies; in July, it issued a rule requiring EWA providers to follow lending laws, drawing widespread industry criticism.

Adam Rust, director of financial services at the Consumer Federation of America, said these interpretive rules could be reinterpreted by the next director and are therefore "vulnerable to reversal." He also noted that a new president could weaken the agency by not filling vacancies left by retirees, cutting resources, and appointing a director who delays rulemaking or imposes only token fines.

"Consumers still expect to be protected from scams, fraud, and deceptive practices," Rust said. "The question is that regulators will have fewer tools and resources to address these harms." He added that while consumer protection issues in finance did not dominate the election outcome, the new administration could still have a significant impact on these areas.

Chris Daniel, chair of the global fintech and payments practice at Paul Hastings law firm, said: "Under a Trump administration, the head of the CFPB will not take the expansive view of power, obligations, and jurisdiction that the Biden administration did."

Notably, during Trump's first term, the CFPB took a more lenient stance toward earned wage access services. A 2020 advisory opinion held that certain EWA services offered through employers and free to employees could be in a safe harbor and not subject to lending laws. However, Chopra's team reversed that precedent in July 2024 and, weeks earlier, revoked special treatment protections for EWA company Payactiv.

Credit Card Interest Rate Cap: A Rare Bipartisan Consensus?

The Biden administration's CFPB also actively targeted "junk fees," attempting to eliminate credit card late fees and other bank charges that Chopra argued excessively burdened American households. On this issue, Trump may find common ground—he proposed a temporary 10% cap on credit card interest rates during his campaign.

"We're going to cap interest rates at around 10%," Trump said at a September 18 rally, calling it a "temporary" measure while Americans "catch up." "We can't let them charge 25% or 30% interest," he added, referring to credit card issuers.

Additionally, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance co-sponsored the Credit Card Competition Act, which would require credit card issuing banks to ensure that when consumers swipe their cards, there are networks other than Visa or Mastercard available to route transactions. However, at least one media outlet has reported that Vance has cooled on the proposal.

The proposal has sparked intense lobbying between large retailers (supporters, who believe it would lower card processing costs) and banks and payment companies (opponents, who oppose government-mandated market competition). Despite some bipartisan support, the bill has made little progress in either chamber of Congress. With Vance entering the administration, the bill may gain new life.

Cryptocurrency: Influence of Allies May Be Key

Trump's stance on digital currencies will depend on the influence of his political allies in the new administration. The cryptocurrency community is a microcosm of this dynamic. Georgetown University professor Jim Angel noted that Trump's policy positions often depend on "the strength of his friends." "In the first administration, crypto was a scam," Angel said. "Now, crypto people have money and support him, so they become his friends."

This could benefit the FIT21 Act (the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act) already passed by the House. The bill passed the Republican-controlled House in May 2024 but stalled in the Democratic-controlled Senate. The bill proposes that if a digital asset operates on a decentralized blockchain or digital ledger, it would be treated as a commodity and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has a lighter touch, rather than the stricter Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Angel also mentioned that Republicans have consistently opposed the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and the new administration may continue this stance, leaving room for private-sector solutions. Trump's election not only boosted cryptocurrency but also raised the value of the USD Coin stablecoin. USD Coin is a major stablecoin managed by the private company Circle Internet Group.

Angel said that if policies allow well-regulated stablecoins to develop, the U.S. might be able to enjoy the benefits of stable digital currency while reducing concerns about the privacy issues of a central bank digital currency.

Industry Grievances: Regulatory Pressure May Ease

Corporate executives have widely complained about excessive regulation, which was particularly pronounced in the payments and fintech sectors during the Biden administration. For example, Marqeta CFO Mike Milotich said on an earnings call that regulatory actions were partly responsible for the company's performance falling short of analyst expectations.

"We have been less efficient in launching new programs with our bank partners, which we attribute to increased regulatory scrutiny of the banking industry over the past few quarters," he said. "In the first few months of 2024, regulatory scrutiny escalated significantly, with banks in our space receiving more than 10 consent orders, more than double the number in 2023."

Additionally, major card networks are frustrated by federal restrictions through antitrust actions. The U.S. Department of Justice sued Visa in September 2024, alleging illegal monopoly in the debit card market. Visa CEO Ryan McInerney responded on last month's earnings call: "We believe the lawsuit is without merit and demonstrates a lack of understanding of the U.S. payments ecosystem. We will defend ourselves vigorously and believe we can prove that Visa competes for every transaction in a debit card market that continues to grow with new entrants."

The industry also disagrees with the current administration on open banking proposals. The CFPB's recently proposed open banking rule aims to give consumers more control over their personal data and promote competition by simplifying account switching. Some industry groups immediately objected, arguing that certain provisions were too stringent. The Bank Policy Institute has joined a lawsuit against the CFPB.

Phil Goldfeder, CEO of the American Fintech Council, an industry trade organization, said that even before the new administration is officially sworn in, it could have an impact before January. The organization has disagreed with the CFPB on some issues. Goldfeder said in an interview: "In the next three months, the current agency still has the opportunity to come back to the table and craft more acceptable policies, and it could still roll out new proposals. There is still time to develop sound policies that can withstand political changes."