Fed Research: AI-Driven Job Displacement May Be Emerging
The latest research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis indicates that since 2022, unemployment rates in AI-intensive occupations have risen notably, especially in the tech field, possibly signaling that AI-driven job displacement has entered an early stage. Companies such as Salesforce and Amazon have openly acknowledged AI's impact on jobs, while the research also suggests that generative AI may create new roles.
Quick Overview
- Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found that in recent years, occupations with intensive AI applicationhave seen a significant rise in unemployment rates。
- The study shows that since 2022, there is a 'significant correlation' between AI adoption rates and rising unemployment, especially in the tech industry.
- Authors Serdar Ozkan and Nicholas Sullivan (senior economic policy advisor and research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, respectively) stated: 'Our findings suggest that we may be witnessing the early stages of AI-driven job displacement.'
Deep Insights
The tech industry has been the primary sector forlayoffs this year. According to a report released on September 4 by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the tech industry has announced 102,239 layoffs from January to the end of August.
Salesforce is one of the companies directly attributing its massive layoffs to AI-related initiatives.
In apodcast interview last month, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said that after AI agents began handling customer conversations, the company reduced its customer service staff from 9,000 to about 5,000.
Benioff said: 'This is the most exciting thing Salesforce has done in the past nine months.'
Salesforce's agentic AI platform Agentforce has handledover 1.4 million requestson help.salesforce.com, the company said in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report last week.
A Salesforce spokesperson said in an email: 'Due to the benefits and efficiency gains from Agentforce, the number of customer service cases we handle has decreased, and we no longer need to actively backfill support engineer positions. We have successfully redeployed hundreds of employees to other areas such as professional services, sales, and customer success.'
Meanwhile,Amazon CEO Andy Jassy faced criticism over his comments this summerin amemo that was eventually made publicwhere he said he expects AI to reduce the company's workforce in the coming years.
Jassy said: 'As we roll out more generative AI and agents, this should change how we work. We will need fewer people for some of the current jobs and more people for other types of jobs.'
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis report, AI-related occupational categories, such as computer and mathematical occupations, have seen the largest increases in unemployment over the past few years, while blue-collar and personal service jobs with limited AI application have seen relatively smaller increases.
Ozkan and Sullivan said their analysis is 'based on preliminary findings in a rapidly evolving field.'
They added: 'If generative AI drives sustained productivity growth, it could ultimately create new jobs and industries, potentially offsetting the impact of job displacement.'