Key Takeaways

  • CFOs expecttariffs to significantly impact their organizations' price increases in 2025 and 2026。
  • according to a quarterly survey conducted by Duke University's Fuqua School of Business in collaboration with the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The survey results show that, absent tariffs, price increases would average about 30% lower in 2025 and about 25% lower in 2026. The results were released Wednesday, September 24.
  • Despite rising optimism about the overall U.S. economic outlook, Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in a press release: "For many CFOs, tariff concerns are real and far-reaching."

Deeper Insights

According to a compilation published by Business Insider this month,companies that have announced price increases due to Trump administration tariffsinclude Walmart, Home Depot, Macy's, and Adidas.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on a May earnings call: "Our ability to manage tariff cost pressures is as good as or better than any peer. But even with lower tariff levels, higher tariffs will still lead to price increases."

The Duke University and Richmond and Atlanta Fed survey shows that nearly half of responding companies said their price or cost expectations for 2025 and 2026 have already been affected by tariff implementation or tariff/trade policy uncertainty. The survey was conducted from August 18 to September 5.

The survey results show that tariffs and trade policy have been the top concern among respondents for the third consecutive quarter, followed by monetary policy and inflation. Respondents who cited tariffs as their top concern held more pessimistic views about the economy and their own organizations.

About 20% of companies said trade/tariff policy would negatively impact their 2025 hiring plans; another quarter said it would negatively impact their capital expenditure plans.

On the positive side, CFOs' expectations for real GDP growth over the next four quarters rose to 1.8% from 1.4% previously. Respondents' average probability assessment of negative economic growth over the next year fell to 13.6% from 22.7% last quarter.

When rating optimism about the overall U.S. economy on a scale of 0 to 100, CFOs gave an average score of 62.9, up from 60.9 in the second quarter.

The report states: "In the third quarter of 2025, financial decision-makers' outlook on the U.S. economy improved and uncertainty declined. However, concerns about the impact of tariffs on prices and corporate performance continue to weigh on businesses."