Key Findings

  • A recent survey by Oliver Wyman shows that most chief financial officers (CFOs) expect their finance departments' headcount to remain flat or decline over the next three years—but as AI-related spending rises, the more critical shift in finance may lie in the adjustment of required skill sets.
  • While 30% of CFOs expect to cut jobs by then, 61% of respondents expect reductions of less than 10% or no change in headcount. The survey was released on Tuesday by Oliver Wyman, a Marsh McLennan company, in conjunction with the New York Stock Exchange.
  • However, according to the survey, "the more significant change may appear in the composition of finance staff." The survey noted that integrating AI and automation into finance functions is expected to eliminate "labor-intensive financial operations." 64% of respondents said they expect finance teams to reduce the share of junior roles, a change that "reflects a deeper transformation in the work itself."

In-Depth Analysis

As companies continue to navigate macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, many are increasingly relying on finance departments to provide insights and strategic guidance to operate effectively in a dynamic environment.

The survey found that this requires CFOs to possess a broader skill set beyond traditional finance. 70% of finance leaders ranked "shaping strategy and transformation" among their top three priorities, while 72% expect this responsibility to grow in importance over the next three years.

Meanwhile, Oliver Wyman found that although reporting, data management, and other traditional CFO responsibilities remain core to the role, fewer than one in ten respondents expect these responsibilities to increase in importance over the same period.

As a result, CFOs face a dual mandate: transforming finance teams to deliver the insights above while navigating the ongoing evolution of their own role from financial steward to creator of value and strategy.

The survey, covering nearly 500 global CFOs, shows that finance leaders are "simultaneously operators, resource allocators, and analytical co-pilots"—juggling five distinct agendas, from effectively scaling AI within the organization and balancing cost with growth, to redesigning and transforming the finance function.

To effectively execute these sometimes conflicting agendas, CFOs are planning to adjust the composition and size of their finance teams—seeking leaner but more experienced teams supported by new technologies. Oliver Wyman found that the traditional "finance pyramid is beginning to flatten, evolving into a diamond shape that is heavy in the middle." The survey showed that 41% of respondents expect a shift toward more mid-level finance roles, and 23% expect an increase in senior roles.

At the same time, recalibrated teams are expected to further leverage AI—with 80% of leaders viewing it as a key lever for transforming and reshaping the finance function.

Another 61% of respondents expect their organizations' enterprise-wide AI spending to grow by 5% to 20% by the end of this year.

However, a significant gap remains between the pace of AI investment and the progress of enablement. 70% of CFOs say AI adoption in key financial activities is still in the planning or pilot stage, with only 8% having deployed AI solutions or agents at scale.

CFOs also need more convincing when it comes to creating value with AI: only 6% of respondents view AI investment as the primary way to enhance enterprise value, "indicating skepticism about AI's effectiveness to date," the survey said.