Key Findings

According to a research report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, between 2019 and 2024, employment in occupational groups with higher exposure to artificial intelligence grew by 4.05%, while occupations less affected by AI experienced layoffs. This data provides a new empirical perspective for understanding the actual impact of AI on the labor market.

Research Highlights

  • Occupations with higher AI exposure saw employment growth of 4.05% between 2019 and 2024, while those with lower exposure experienced job reductions.
  • During the same period, wages rose across all occupational groups regardless of AI exposure levels.
  • The researchers noted: "These patterns suggest that exposure to AI and automation does not mechanically translate into unemployment, at least in the short term. Task-based measures of technology exposure are better understood as signals of occupational restructuring rather than direct predictors of employment decline."

Research Background and Comparison

This study by the Chicago Fed echoes other recent reports, collectively challenging widespread concerns that AI will lead to massive layoffs across various occupations. The researchers stated: "Conflicting macroeconomic analyses from market participants paint either dystopian or utopian visions of the future."

They added: "Given these existential questions, not to mention genuine concerns about job displacement, it is not surprising that 50% of Americans are more worried than excited about increased AI use."

Yale Budget Lab's Perspective

In a study released in October 2025, the Yale Budget Lab noted that concerns about unemployment in the United States have been rising since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. The institution stated: "Surveys show that the public is generally anxious about potential job losses caused by AI."

However, the Yale Budget Lab study also pointed out that, to date, AI's disruption to the labor market has been "minimal." The institution said: "Overall, our indicators suggest that, 33 months after ChatGPT's release, the broader labor market has not experienced significant disruption, weakening concerns that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor in the economy."

The Yale Budget Lab further explained: "While this finding may contradict the most alarming headlines, it is not surprising given past precedents." They noted that the disruption of computers and other technologies to the workplace unfolded over decades, not months or years.

Evidence from the International Labour Organization

In a study released in May 2025, the International Labour Organization (ILO), citing data from studies across seven countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and South Korea, noted that "there is currently little evidence that generative AI has directly led to mass unemployment." Instead, "early signals point to significant adjustments in task demands, hiring patterns, and employment structures, especially in occupations highly dependent on routine cognitive tasks."

The ILO also mentioned that research from China shows that firms adopting AI tend to restructure their workforce rather than lay off employees. "This evidence reinforces the view that generative AI affects labor demand by reshaping task compositions and skill requirements, rather than eliminating entire occupations."

Nevertheless, the ILO warned that AI adoption is not without risks. "The main risks lie in rising inequality, reduced employment opportunities for young workers, and changes in the organization of work—which have implications for coordination, worker autonomy, and job quality."

Conclusion and Outlook

Researchers at the Yale Budget Lab concluded: "While anxiety about AI's impact on today's labor market is widespread, our data suggest that this anxiety remains largely speculative." They added: "The picture of AI's impact on the labor market emerging from our data largely reflects stability, and it is too early to judge how disruptive this technology will be to employment."

The Chicago Fed's research similarly emphasizes that AI's impact on employment is not a linear loss of jobs, but rather an adjustment of occupational structures. This conclusion provides a more cautious reference framework for policymakers and businesses.