Treasury
Corporate economists expect tariffs to boost inflation in 2025
A Wolters Kluwer survey released on Monday shows that eight in ten corporate economists expect U.S. tariffs to boost inflation in 2025. Respondents raised their forecast for this year's CPI growth from 2.5% in October to 2.7%. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, is expected to average near 2.7% over the four quarters starting in April.
Falling unemployment rate strengthens market expectations: Fed may delay rate cut to June
Data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that nonfarm payrolls added 143,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4%, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will delay rate cuts until June. Fed Governor Kugler said the labor market is healthy but inflation progress is slow, with high policy uncertainty. Futures traders see a 72% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at the May meeting.
ISM: U.S. services sector expands for seventh straight month, but tariff risks weigh on new orders
Data released by ISM on Wednesday showed that U.S. service sector activity expanded for the seventh consecutive month in January, but the new orders index fell to a seven-month low, reflecting businesses' concerns about the Trump administration's tariffs and immigration policies. Federal Reserve officials said interest rates will remain unchanged until the policy outlook becomes clearer.
Costco's 'Voice': A Long Farewell
Richard Galanti, the former chief financial officer of Costco Wholesale, officially retired on Thursday after serving in the role for about four decades. He transitioned to an advisory role in March and attended his last annual meeting in January. On the eve of retirement, he returned to the company office to collect personal items and shared his views on succession, regulation, and the future.
China announces additional tariffs on some U.S. goods in response to Trump's executive order
China's Ministry of Finance announced on Tuesday that it will impose additional tariffs on certain goods originating from the United States starting February 10, with a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and some automobiles. This move is in response to the Trump administration's tariff increases. Meanwhile, China announced export controls on metals such as tungsten and tellurium.
Trump Tariff Shockwave: Chain Reactions Within Three Days of Implementation
Since Saturday, February 1, when Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Canada quickly announced countermeasures, which were then suspended on Monday; Trump agreed to suspend tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days. Markets were hit, and consumers and businesses faced uncertainty. Economists and business groups warned that the impact of these tariffs could exceed that of the trade war with China during his first term.
Inflation data aligns with Fed expectations, supporting the decision to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge was largely flat in December, in line with policymakers' expectations and reinforcing their recent decision to hold benchmark interest rates steady. The core PCE price index rose 2.8% year over year, still above the 2% target.
ADM appoints outsider Nichols as chief accounting officer amid accounting turmoil
ADM announced on Wednesday the appointment of 45-year-old Carrie Nichols as chief accounting officer, effective March 1. Nichols has over 20 years of financial experience and previously served as CAO at Cargill. She will report to CFO Monish Patolawala, who has been working to address the company's accounting control deficiencies since taking office last year. The company still faces regulatory investigations, and investors are dissatisfied with the slow progress.
Federal Reserve holds benchmark interest rate steady, Trump tariff threats raise inflation concerns
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at Wednesday's meeting, with policymakers unanimously agreeing that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate amid concerns that the Trump administration's tariffs, deregulation, mass deportations of immigrants, and tax cuts could push inflation higher in the coming months. Fed Chair Powell stated that the committee sees no need to rush adjustments to its policy stance and will prudently assess the impact of the new administration's policies on the economy based on data.
NABE survey shows salary growth indicator falls to lowest level since April 2021
The quarterly survey released by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) on Monday showed that the salary growth indicator has fallen to its lowest level since April 2021, with only 41% of economists reporting salary increases over the past three months.