Retail spending rose in September, but multiple reports showed that the increase was partly driven by higher prices, with consumers' actual purchasing power weakening compared to the same period last year.

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the Commerce Department's September retail sales report, originally scheduled for Thursday, was not released as planned. Other alternative reports—which are not ideal substitutes for government data due to different methodologies and slightly different time periods—showed mixed results.

A report from the Bank of America Institute showed that total credit and debit card spending per household rose 2% year over year, driven mainly by services and gasoline consumption.

A report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) on October 9 (also based on credit and debit card data) showed that core retail sales (excluding restaurants, autos, and fuel) grew more than 5.7% year over year.

The organization found healthy year-over-year growth in most categories. Not adjusted for inflation, sales at sporting goods, hobby, music, and bookstores grew more than 8.8%; clothing and accessories stores grew more than 7.3%; general merchandise sales grew more than 5.5%; health and personal care sales grew more than 4.6%; and electronics and appliance sales grew more than 4.4%. Furniture and home furnishings sales were sluggish, rising only 0.56% year over year.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay said September's "year-over-year gains show strong growth and signal momentum heading into the holiday season."

However, according to Circana research, inflation drove some of the growth. The firm found that in the five weeks ending October 4, U.S. retail sales revenue was flat compared with the same period in 2024, but unit demand fell 2%. Circana's calculations include discretionary general merchandise, retail food and beverage, and non-edible consumer packaged goods.

For discretionary general merchandise alone, retail sales fell 3% and unit demand fell 6%, Circana data showed.

These figures indicate that "consumers no longer have the same purchasing power they had a year ago," said Marshal Cohen, Circana's chief retail industry advisor.

"We are in a period of 'invisible inflation,'" he said in a statement. "On the surface, retail sales appear unaffected by inflation, but in reality, consumers are buying fewer items, keeping total spending flat even though the goods they purchase cost more."

Researchers at the Bank of America Institute noted that the wealth gap is also reflected in recent spending patterns. Spending by lower-income households may reflect weaker wage growth. Meanwhile, middle- and higher-income households not only saw stronger wage growth but also benefited from the "wealth effect" related to stock markets and homeownership.

Retail Dive will update its retail sales tracker if the government releases its report.