Key Takeaways

  • U.S. policymakers should make reducing the national debt—which has surpassed the size of the U.S. economy—a top priority, according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). The survey was conducted before the Supreme Court ruled Friday that most of the tariffs underpinning the Trump administration's federal budget were illegal.
  • NABE said 61% of business economists believe current fiscal policy is too stimulative, the highest share holding that view since 2018. Forty-six percent of economists said reducing the U.S. deficit and debt should be thetop policy priority, up 3 percentage points from the August survey.
  • Business economists believe deficit reduction should take precedence over immigration and healthcare reform. They support "structural measures to promote growth, control spending or reform entitlement programs, and raise taxes to address fiscal gaps," Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon and NABE president, said in a statement.

Deeper Dive

The impact of the Supreme Court's tariff ruling on the U.S. fiscal outlook has sparked a public debate between the Trump administration and federal policy analysts.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the court's rulingwill not weaken U.S. revenue, citing President Donald Trump's plans to impose import taxes under other executive authorities to generate additional income.

"Tariff revenue will not change this year, and it will not change in the future," Bessent said in a Fox News interview, noting that since the ruling, Trump has announced an additional 15% global tariff.

Bessent criticized Maya MacGuineas's (president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) Friday estimate that revoking the tariffs could add about $2 trillion to projected federal deficits over the next decade if fiscal policy is not adjusted.

"Maya MacGuineas should be ashamed, and they should remove 'Responsible' from the name of her organization," Bessent said. "Everything she tells you is completely irresponsible," Bessent told the interviewer.

MacGuineas, inresponse to the court ruling, said Friday that "we are in a dire fiscal situation, and it has gotten worse."

"The national debt is already the size of the entire U.S. economy, and interest payments on the debt exceed $1 trillion this year, which is very bad news," she said.

"Relying on legally questionable sources of revenue is clearly not ideal," she said. "Congress needs to take control of our debt."

MacGuineas pushed back Monday against Bessent's criticism, saying the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has repeatedly called on Democrats and Republicans over the years toimprove the federal budget outlookand put the U.S. deficit and debt on a sustainable path.

"Personal attacks do not help us improve our fiscal trajectory," MacGuineas said in a statement. "With debt near record levels relative to the economy and interest costs soaring above $1 trillion, we hope policymakers from both parties are ready to take the budget deficit seriously."

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that the Supreme Court's tariff ruling could provide some stimulus to economic growth.

The decision "overturning most of the import tariffs imposed last year could have a positive effect on spending and investment, but how large and how lasting that effect will be is unclear,"Waller said in a speech。

"The administration plans to use other laws to reimpose at least some of the tariffs, but there is considerable uncertainty about the extent to which tariffs will persist," he said.