Key Takeaways

  • The Peter G. Peterson Foundation said that in July, U.S. voters' confidence in thenation's fiscal healthfell to a 13-month low, following the passage of the Trump administration's sweeping tax and spending bill.
  • Nearly six in ten voters (59%) believe the U.S. is on a dangerous fiscal path, and 61% expect the national debt burden to worsen in the coming years. According to the Congressional Budget Office, recently enacted legislation will increase the national debt by $4.1 trillion by the end of 2034.
  • "Voters are making it clear that it's time to stop digging the hole deeper, and they want leaders to take action to stabilize the debt and create a sustainable budget outlook," said Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, in a statement. "The U.S. currently spends more on debt interest than on defense or Medicaid, and interest costs are growing faster than either."

In-Depth Analysis

The survey shows that the Trump administration has failed to convince most voters that recently enacted legislation—focused on tax cuts and scaling back healthcare and social programs—will improve the nation's long-term budget outlook.

Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought has repeatedly said that estimates from the Congressional Budget Office and other agencies are flawed, claiming the legislation will reduce the federal deficit by $1.4 trillion by 2034.

"If you care about the deficit and debt, this bill will dramatically improve the fiscal situation," Vought said on X in June, referring to the reconciliation bill.

Before the legislation passed in July, the Government Accountability Office calculated that public debt would rise from 98% of GDP in September to a record 106% by 2027.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, painted a more optimistic picture based on its fiscal plans.

"President Trump's growth-oriented economic policies and cutting wasteful spending are key to improving the fiscal outlook," the White House said in June. Trump's "proven economic formula—historic tax cuts, rapid deregulation, balanced trade, and cutting wasteful spending—will reduce debt to 94% of GDP by 2034."

Democrats and Republicans alike, including the White House, acknowledge the urgency of putting the U.S. on a sustainable budget track.

Before the Trump-backed legislation passed, Ernst & Young and the Peterson Foundation estimated that by 2035, rising national debt would shrink the economy by $340 billion, reduce U.S. jobs by 1.2 million, and cut private investment by 13.6%.

Additionally, The Conference Board said that before President Donald Trump took office in January, U.S. CEOs viewed the national debt as a "time bomb."

Citing a survey, The Conference Board said in January that more than half (51%) of CEOs saw national debt and deficits as the top external risk facing their businesses.

Economists point out that as federal debt rises, increased federal borrowing pushes up the cost of capital and "crowds out" private-sector lending, dampening innovation and business investment.

Downgrades by the three major credit rating agencies confirm the murky fiscal outlook, complicating corporate planning and leading to delays in hiring and investment.

According to the Peterson Foundation's survey, 80% of voters—including 83% of Republicans—believe reducing the federal debt should be one of Trump's and Congress's top three priorities. In June, that figure was 76%.

The poll, commissioned by the Peterson Foundation, surveyed 1,003 registered voters nationwide from July 21 to 23.