Key points:

  • According toEY-Parthenon mid-year M&A outlook, M&A deals over $100 million in the U.S. are expected to grow by 8% in 2026, partly driven by rising demand for AI capabilities.
  • The analysis shows that corporate deal volume is expected to grow by 11%, while private equity firms will see flat volume as they adopt more cautious and selective strategies in response to geopolitical tensions.
  • "Private equity investors are being extremely cautious about where they deploy capital right now," said Mitch Berlin, EY-Parthenon Americas Vice Chair, in a press release.

Deeper analysis:

Another study released by Grant Thornton in March 2026 shows that CFOs areincreasing investments in AI and digital transformation, while scaling back cost-cutting efforts, reflecting a complex mix of optimism about the overall economic outlook.

"Companies are balancing short-term earnings requirements with long-term development," said Mike Desmond, Grant Thornton's audit growth leader, in a press release at the time. "They face immediate cost and profitability pressures, but they are also focused on the investments needed to drive future value."

EY described its forecast of 11% growth in corporate M&A volume as a "baseline" scenario, with growth potentially slowing to 5% in a pessimistic scenario.

The outlook comes as corporate executives continue to navigate a volatile business environment.

A recent EY-Parthenon survey found that nearly three-quarters (73%) of C-suite executives said thatgeopolitical and economic headwinds—such as interest rate changes, trade policies, inflation, and supply chain disruptions—have impacted their growth strategies over the past year.

Despite these challenges, M&A activity in the first five months of the year remained strong.

According to data provided by EY-Parthenon to CFO Dive, as of May 31, 2026, the total value of U.S. deals over $100 million reached $1.43 trillion, up 62.3% from the same period last year. Deal volume also rose 16.4% year-over-year to 774 deals.

Technology sector M&A saw strong growth, with deal value reaching approximately $479 billion, up 65% year-over-year; deal volume grew 10% to 234 deals.

"Despite external tensions and trade frictions adding complexity to M&A, CEOs still view M&A as a core driver of transformation in the era of accelerated AI adoption," Berlin said.