Risk Management
The Conference Board: Tariff 'drag' will lower this year's GDP growth to 1.6%
The Conference Board reported on Thursday that current tariff levels are the highest since the 1930s, significantly dragging on the economy, and it expects GDP growth to slow to 1.6% this year. Its Leading Economic Index fell in August by the most since April, with components such as new manufacturing orders, building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, and consumer expectations all weakening.
Tariff clauses in commercial contracts become the norm: 90% of companies seek risk hedging
An Agiloft survey shows that 92% of companies have included tariff clauses in contracts to hedge against uncertainty; legal departments lead reviews (70%), followed by finance departments (45%). The U.S. collected $165 billion in tariff revenue from January to August, but an appellate court ruled the tariffs illegal, and the government may need to issue refunds.
August retail sales beat expectations with a 0.6% increase, marking a third consecutive monthly rise despite weak consumer confidence
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in August, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and exceeding market expectations. Despite a weak labor market and declining consumer confidence, categories such as e-commerce and apparel performed strongly. The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 GDP forecast to 3.4%.
FBI Issues Warning: Two Hacker Groups Launch Ransomware and Data Theft Attacks Against Salesforce Instances
The FBI issued an alert on Friday, warning that two hacker groups, UNC6040 and UNC6395, are attacking Salesforce instances. UNC6040 has been using vishing to obtain employee credentials since October 2024, while UNC6395 conducts supply chain attacks through compromised OAuth tokens from Salesloft Drift. Some victims have received ransom demands claiming to be from ShinyHunters.
McKinsey: Consumer sentiment declines, holiday season spending turns cautious
McKinsey's latest quarterly survey shows that, affected by persistent inflation and an uncertain economic outlook, American consumers are cautiously planning their holiday spending, with a quarter of respondents planning to reduce consumption, and the willingness to purchase non-essential and semi-essential items has notably contracted.
Consumer Confidence Slips: Bleak Labor Market Outlook Raises Concerns
The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell for the second consecutive month in September, with job concerns and tariff-induced price pressures being the main drags. Long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, while the Federal Reserve faces dual challenges of inflation and employment, with the market expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting.
Inflation accelerates to 2.9%, a new high for 2025, while a slowing job market intensifies pressure on the Fed to cut rates
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2025; core CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, a new high since October 2021. Analysts believe that tariffs are pushing up prices, while the risk of a weakening job market is rising, and the Fed may need to choose between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation next week.
Producer Price Index Retreat Strengthens Expectations for Fed Rate Cut Next Week
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Producer Price Index fell 0.1% month-over-month in August and rose 2.6% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target. Despite inflationary pressures from tariffs, the retreat in the PPI strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week. The market sees a rate cut on September 17 as nearly certain, with the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut by year-end rising to 73%.
US small business optimism rebounds, labor demand continues to weaken
The monthly survey released by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) on Tuesday showed that small business optimism rebounded in August, mainly due to improved sales expectations and profit outlooks. However, the labor market continued to cool: the share of businesses reporting hiring difficulties fell to 32%, and the proportion of businesses hiring or attempting to hire dropped to 53%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that although overall business conditions have improved, labor quality remains the top issue facing small businesses.
Ransomware insurance losses climb despite drop in claims: Resilience report
Resilience's latest report indicates that the average cost of ransomware attacks in the first half of 2025 rose 17% year-over-year, accounting for 76% of incurred losses in its insurance portfolio, despite a 53% drop in claim numbers. Attackers using tactics such as AI and double extortion have driven single losses to exceed $1.18 million.