Treasury
Survey: Confidence of CEOs at major U.S. companies rebounds, with plans to increase capital spending and optimistic sales outlook
A survey released Wednesday by the Business Roundtable showed that CEO optimism at major U.S. companies rebounded significantly this quarter, with plans to increase capital spending over the next six months and expectations of sales growth. The CEO optimism index rose by 9 points quarter-over-quarter to 89, surpassing the historical average of 83. The survey concluded on March 6, after the Supreme Court rejected most of the Trump administration's tariffs and following the outbreak of the Iran war.
Small Business Optimism Index Misses Expectations, Weaker Sales Outlook Drags Overall Sentiment
Data released by the NFIB on Tuesday showed that the small business optimism index for February fell short of expectations, with a weaker sales outlook being the main drag. Actual sales and profit trends improved somewhat, but the share of capital expenditure declined, and taxes and inflation remain key concerns for business owners.
Iran Conflict Drives Oil Above $100, Fueling Stagflation Concerns
The Iran war has triggered a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude briefly topping $117 per barrel on Monday before retreating below $100 after G7 pledged to tap reserves. Analysts warn of potential stagflation, while U.S. consumers face higher gas prices and rising borrowing costs.
US February Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Drop by 92,000; Middle East Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher, Raising Inflation Concerns
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February, while Middle East hostilities pushed oil prices to their highest levels since 2022, intensifying inflation concerns. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, breaking Fed officials' expectations of a stabilizing labor market. San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that both mandates face risks, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack argued that policy should continue to wait and see. Interest rate futures markets have raised the probability of a June rate cut from 33.3% to 50.3%.
CEO and CFO Optimism Rebounds, Driving Corporate Investment Expansion: AICPA Survey
A joint survey by AICPA and CIMA shows that in the first quarter of 2026, CEO and CFO optimism about the economy and business prospects significantly rebounded from the previous quarter, with 55% of respondents planning to adopt more aggressive expansion strategies. Although the Middle East conflict could push up energy prices and affect inflation, corporate investment intentions have strengthened, and expectations for revenue and profit growth have been revised upward.
ISM: Service Sector Expansion Fastest Since Mid-2022
ISM data showed that U.S. service sector expansion in February was the fastest since mid-2022, with the new orders index rising 5.5 percentage points month-over-month and the business activity index up 2.5 percentage points. The supplier deliveries index climbed for the 15th straight month, with 14 industries reporting growth and only 3 contracting. Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said that despite lingering tariff uncertainty, businesses are equipped to handle policy changes.
Fed Survey: Inflation Remains Biggest Financial Challenge for Small Businesses, Tariff Impact Continues to Emerge
A survey released by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday shows that nearly three-quarters of small businesses view inflation as their biggest financial challenge, with 42% listing tariffs as a major issue. 48% of small businesses import goods, and 84% of those report higher import prices. New York Fed President Williams said tariffs have significantly raised import prices, and the full impact has not yet fully materialized.
ISM: Manufacturing expands for second straight month, but tariffs and energy prices weigh
The ISM manufacturing index came in at 52.4 in April, slightly down from 52.6 in March but still above the 50 threshold indicating expansion. The prices paid index jumped 11.5 points to 70.5, the highest since June 2022. The employment index rose 0.7 percentage points but remained in contraction territory. Analysts noted that rising energy prices, weakening consumer demand, and tariff-related costs and uncertainty remain key headwinds for the manufacturing sector.
Producer Price Index Rises More Than Expected, Inflationary Pressures Persist
U.S. January Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, both exceeding expectations, indicating that inflationary pressures remain stubborn. Service prices rose 0.8% month-over-month, the largest increase since last July, while goods prices fell 0.3% month-over-month. After the data release, interest rate futures markets raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in June to 58%. Fed Governor Waller stated that a robust labor market may support keeping rates unchanged, but if employment data weakens, a March rate cut remains possible.
Consumer confidence edges up: stabilizing job market boosts optimism
A survey released by The Conference Board on Tuesday showed that the consumer confidence index rose 2.2 points to 91.2 this month, as the proportion of consumers who believe jobs are plentiful climbed to a three-month high of 28%. However, factors such as inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target and slowing economic growth in the fourth quarter continue to keep consumers cautious.