Treasury
Recruitment rebound and stable job vacancies highlight labor market resilience
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that hiring activity accelerated noticeably in March, and job vacancies remained stable, alleviating concerns from previous months about a weakening labor market. However, layoffs increased slightly, and the quits rate rose marginally. Fed Chair Powell stated that the policy stance is in a 'very good position' to wait for more data.
AI investment boom drives US first-quarter economic rebound, GDP annualized growth of 2%
Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that in the first quarter of 2026, US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2%, with corporate investment in equipment and structures surging 10.4%, the largest increase since the second quarter of 2023. AI investment has become a major driver, but economists warn that the Iran war could weigh on the economic outlook.
Federal Reserve Holds Benchmark Rate Steady, Warns of Dual Risks to Employment and Inflation from Iran War
The Federal Reserve held its main interest rate steady at Wednesday's meeting, but with four dissenting votes. Policymakers noted that the Iran war, now in its third month, poses risks to inflation and employment. Chair Powell said the economy is "solid" but acknowledged uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. Three dissenters did not support adding an easing bias to the statement, while Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rebounds, Job Outlook Improves
Data released by The Conference Board on Tuesday showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to 92.8 in April, up 0.6 percentage points from March, mainly due to improved consumer assessments of the current job market and its outlook. Although assessments of business conditions declined, positive signals from the labor market offset this impact. Meanwhile, the war in Iran pushed up oil prices, intensifying consumer concerns about inflation, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit a historic low. Federal Reserve officials are increasingly divided on interest rate decisions, with the market widely expecting rates to remain unchanged this week.
Soaring gasoline prices drag U.S. consumer confidence to lowest since 1978
The University of Michigan's April consumer confidence index fell to 49.8, the lowest since data collection began in 1978. The Iran war triggered a sharp rise in gasoline prices, with one-year inflation expectations climbing to 4.7%. Economists warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, consumer confidence is unlikely to improve.
S&P Global: Iran War Drags on Services and Manufacturing Growth
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report released by S&P Global on Thursday showed that, due to the Iran war, inflationary pressures intensified, and output growth in the services and manufacturing sectors slowed to the weakest three-month level since early 2024. Output price increases in April were the fastest since mid-2022, with manufacturing goods price gains hitting a 10-month high and services sales price increases surging to a 45-month peak. Although manufacturing output grew on AI investment and customer restocking, the overall labor market remained weak, with services sector confidence particularly subdued.
Warsh pledges independence if he leads the Fed, refusing to be Trump's 'puppet'
Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, clearly stating that if confirmed, he would not act as Trump's 'puppet' on monetary policy or succumb to presidential pressure to cut rates. He also criticized the Fed's policy mistakes from 2021 to 2022 for leaving lingering inflation problems and advocated for fundamental policy reforms.
EY: AI Expansion Drives M&A Activity Despite Supply Shocks
According to the latest EY data, despite economic uncertainties such as supply shocks, U.S. M&A deals exceeding $100 million in April 2025 saw a 43% quarter-over-quarter increase in value and a 25% rise in volume, driven by demand for AI capabilities. Large deals in the technology sector grew 31%, while consumer goods, life sciences, and electric utilities posted triple-digit growth.
Federal Reserve Policy Committee Vice Chairman Williams: Current Monetary Policy Sufficient to Address Risks from Iran Conflict
Federal Reserve Policy Committee Vice Chairman John Williams said on Thursday that despite significant risks and uncertainties from the Iran war, the current monetary policy stance is sufficient to balance employment and price stability goals. He expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2% to 2.5% this year and noted that surging energy prices have pushed up inflation, but core inflation remains moderate.
Fed Beige Book: Iran War Spurs Corporate Caution, Slowing Pricing, Hiring, and Investment Decisions
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey released Wednesday shows that uncertainty stemming from the Iran war has prompted U.S. companies to delay hiring, pricing, and capital investment decisions, and has raised costs for energy and petroleum-based products such as plastics and fertilizers. The report notes that overall price pressures remain moderate, but input costs have risen faster than selling prices, squeezing profit margins.