Treasury
S&P Survey: US Manufacturing Expansion Fastest Since 2021, but Factory Layoffs Significant
S&P Global's June survey shows that US manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace since July 2021, with new orders reaching a four-year high, but factory layoffs (excluding the pandemic period) were the largest since 2009. Service sector growth was weak, showing a divergence in the economy.
Survey: Only One in Five Companies Can Quantify the Financial Impact of Sustainability
In a report released in June, KPMG stated that after surveying 2,024 executives, it found that only one in five companies can quantify the financial impact of sustainability, with most companies having "blind spots" and significant differences across industries.
Stock and Bond Markets Signal Improving Economic Outlook: The Conference Board
Data released Thursday by The Conference Board showed that the U.S. leading economic index rose 0.1% month-over-month in May, driven by stronger stock markets and a narrowing interest rate gap, marking a second consecutive month of growth. However, the organization warned that consumers are cutting back on spending due to rising everyday costs, and economic growth is expected to slow from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps benchmark interest rate unchanged, removes language indicating further easing bias
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its June meeting and removed language in its policy statement about possible future rate cuts, suggesting that the next rate adjustment could be a hike.
Gasoline price drop boosts consumer confidence, Michigan index ends four-month decline
The University of Michigan's June consumer confidence index rose 9% month-over-month, ending a four-month decline, driven mainly by the average gasoline price falling from $4.50 to $4.11 per gallon. Despite short-term sentiment improvement, concerns about persistently high inflation persist, and the overall economic assessment remains subdued.
Energy Price Surge Pushes Inflation Rate to 4.2%, a Three-Year High
U.S. inflation jumped to 4.2% in May, a three-year high, with energy prices surging due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, contributing over 60% of the inflationary pressure. Core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target. If the strait disruption continues through the Labor Day weekend, the energy shock could spread to more sectors and affect the monetary policy path.
Soaring energy prices weigh on small business confidence, NFIB survey shows optimism index hits new low since last October
An NFIB survey released on Tuesday showed that soaring energy prices pushed the small business optimism index to its lowest level since October 2024. Chief economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that large and unpredictable increases in fuel prices hit small businesses harder. Job openings and hiring plans fell to a six-year low, with 14% of owners citing labor costs as their biggest problem, the highest since the survey began in 1973.
OECD forecasts: US GDP growth to slow from 2% this year to 1.8% by 2027
The OECD's latest economic outlook shows that US economic growth is expected to gradually slow from about 2% in 2026 to 1.8% by 2027, mainly due to energy price shocks from the Iran war dampening consumer spending. The report also mentioned possible Federal Reserve rate hikes and warned of downside economic risks.
U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in April, while hiring activity cooled
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that job openings surged to a two-year high in April, while hiring declined. The largest increase in job openings was in the professional and business services sector, but analysts warned that subsequent data revisions could erase some of the gains.
ISM: US Manufacturing Activity Sees Fastest Expansion in Four Years
The ISM manufacturing index rose 1.3 points month-over-month to 54 in May, marking the fastest expansion in four years, with new orders hitting a four-month high. All six major manufacturing industries expanded, but 69% of executive comments were negative, 42% cited the Iran war, and 57% were concerned about price volatility.