Treasury
Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Eight-Month Low, Signaling Labor Market Stabilization
The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 211,000 in the week ending in late 2024, hitting an eight-month low, indicating the labor market has remained stable after showing signs of weakness mid-year. This data reinforces Federal Reserve officials' forecasts from last month that the pace of rate cuts may slow in 2025. Market expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady at its January 29 meeting have risen from 57% to 89%.
Federal Reserve Cuts Benchmark Rate, Signals Possible Slowdown in Easing Pace in 2025
Following its December policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%-4.5%. The latest economic projections show that officials expect the median rate to be 3.9% by the end of 2025, up 50 basis points from the September forecast, suggesting a potentially slower pace of easing ahead.
MassMutual's First Female CFO Reflects on Her Career: Automation Transformation and Finding Your Voice in the Workplace
MassMutual's first female CFO, Betsy Ward, will retire at the end of this month, concluding a 30-year career at the company. During her tenure, she led the modernization of financial processes, promoting automation and data visualization applications. In a recent interview, she looked back on her atypical path from actuary to CFO and shared insights on women finding their voice and making choices in the workplace.
Tariff Outlook Uncertain, Costco CFO Plans to Stock Up Early to Hedge Risks
Costco CFO Gary Millerchip revealed on the first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call that, in response to anticipated tariff policies, the company will take measures such as purchasing inventory ahead of time, collaborating with suppliers to control costs, seeking alternative sources, and adjusting product assortments. He acknowledged that tariffs create cost pressures but believes competitors face similar challenges. Additionally, the company observed a trend in consumer food spending shifting from dining out to eating at home, with holiday spending leaning toward essential categories.
Morningstar Appoints Internal Veteran Michael Holt as Chief Financial Officer
Morningstar, Inc. announced the appointment of Michael Holt, a veteran with approximately 16 years at the company, as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2025, succeeding Jason Dubinsky, who is departing. Holt previously served as Chief Strategy Officer and also held the role of President of the Research and Investment division.
Rising inflation highlights the difficulty for the Fed to achieve its 2% target
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that November CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in October, with core CPI up 3.3% year-on-year. Housing costs rose 0.3% month-on-month, contributing nearly 40% of the increase. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, interest rate futures markets still indicate a 95% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, but analysts believe a January cut is unlikely.
US small business optimism rises to highest level in over three years
Data released by the NFIB on Tuesday showed that small business owners' optimism rose to a more than three-year high, due to expectations that the Trump administration will implement pro-growth regulatory and tax policies.
Employment Rebounds: Hurricane and Strike Effects Fade, Unemployment Rate Edges Up
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. The end of the Boeing strike and post-hurricane rebuilding in the Southeast drove the employment rebound, but the overall labor market is cooling. Fed officials have mixed views, with market expectations for a December rate cut at 85%.
Robust economy provides buffer for Fed, Powell says rate cut pace can be considered prudently
Federal Reserve Chair Powell said on Wednesday that the solid job market and better-than-expected economic performance give policymakers time to prudently consider the pace of future rate cuts. He noted the economy is stronger than September expectations and labor market risks have decreased, allowing for a more careful search for the neutral rate. Several Fed officials also expressed concerns that inflation progress may stall, but Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes the path to the 2% inflation target, though bumpy, is sustainable. Market data shows traders' probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has risen to 76%.
U.S. Manufacturing Activity Contracts for Eighth Consecutive Month: ISM Report
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Monday that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, although the new orders index returned to positive territory after seven months of contraction. Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, noted that slower production execution is consistent with weak demand and insufficient backlog orders, with respondents continuing to express concerns about a lack of new orders. While the new orders index rose, it has not yet shown stable growth since ending 24 consecutive months of expansion in May 2022.