Treasury
Consumer Spending Decline Highlights Weak Confidence, Tariff Shadows Loom Over Economic Outlook
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that consumer spending fell 0.5% month-over-month in January, mainly due to reduced purchases of durable goods such as automobiles. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index has continued to decline, and the Atlanta Fed has sharply revised its first-quarter GDP growth forecast from 2.3% down to -1.5%. Tariff threats and employment uncertainty have become key factors suppressing consumption and confidence.
Baker Hughes appoints internal executive Ahmed Moghal as new Chief Financial Officer
Baker Hughes announced on Monday the appointment of Ahmed Moghal as the group's Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately. Moghal previously served as the finance leader of the company's Industrial and Energy Technology (IET) business segment. Former CFO Nancy Buese departed after more than two years in the role, with a separation agreement reached between both parties, and she will serve as an advisor to the Chairman and CEO until April 30.
Tariff Concerns Push Up Inflation Expectations, U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Declines Significantly
The latest University of Michigan consumer survey shows that amid concerns that tariffs could trigger inflation, the U.S. consumer confidence index declined across the board in February, with both short-term and long-term inflation expectations rising sharply. About 40% of consumers actively mentioned the impact of tariffs, while Fed officials had previously believed inflation expectations were stable. Meanwhile, business confidence also weakened, with the S&P Global PMI falling to a 17-month low.
CEO Confidence Index Jumps to Three-Year High, Conference Board Survey Shows
The Conference Board reported on Thursday that CEO confidence jumped to a three-year high in the first quarter of 2025, shifting from caution to optimism. The survey showed that the proportion of CEOs planning to increase capital expenditures over the next 12 months rose by 8 percentage points to 33%. However, policy uncertainty in areas such as trade policy and immigration remains high, and the Atlanta Fed President warned that uncertainty could affect credit and labor markets.
Under tariff threats, CFOs focus on supply chain strategy adjustments: BDO survey
A BDO survey of 500 CFOs shows that 49% of respondents plan to incorporate a financial perspective into supply chain strategy this year to address challenges such as geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and labor shortages. Despite escalating cost pressures from tariff threats, 72% of CFOs still expect year-over-year revenue growth in 2025.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Warns: 'Overhyped' Generative AI Could Trigger Stock Market Correction
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr said on Tuesday that generative AI may be overhyped, and if actual results fall short of expectations, stock prices of companies heavily invested in the technology could face a correction. He also noted that generative AI could bring incremental gains or transformative impacts in the financial sector, requiring regulators to respond flexibly.
Study: U.S. inflation could fall back to 2% by mid-2026 without Trump tariff shock
The latest forecast from the Conference Board shows that U.S. inflation is expected to fall back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by mid-2026, provided that policies such as tariffs under the Trump administration do not significantly drive up prices. The institution expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in July, September, and December of this year, and to hold rates in a neutral range of 3% to 3.25% in the second quarter of 2026.
US inflation rises to 3%, Trump urges Fed to cut rates
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the consumer price index rose 3% year-on-year in January, the largest increase since last June, exceeding market expectations. Housing costs rose 0.4% month-on-month, contributing 30% of the CPI increase; egg prices surged 15%, driving up food prices. President Trump again called on the Fed to cut rates after the data release, but Fed Chair Powell stated at a congressional hearing that inflation remains above the 2% target, policy will remain restrictive, and emphasized central bank independence.
Fed Chair Powell: No Urgency to Cut Rates, Economy Maintains Steady Growth
Fed Chair Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday that, given a strong job market and continued steady economic growth, the central bank sees no urgency to cut interest rates. He also noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated and warned of the unsustainable path of federal debt. Cleveland Fed President Hammack echoed this, saying policy should not be adjusted until inflation clearly returns to the 2% target.
Trump signs executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum
U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on Monday imposing 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, eliminating all exemptions and exclusions, effective March 12. The EU, Mexico, and Canada expressed opposition, while U.S. manufacturers worry about rising costs.