Treasury
Fed holds rates steady, warns of upside risks to inflation and unemployment
At its May meeting, the Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.5% range and warned of rising inflation and unemployment risks, with heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook.
U.S. services sector expanded for the 10th consecutive month in April, showing resilience amid tariff and budget cut pressures
The latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that U.S. services sector activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in April, despite drags from tariff impacts and federal budget cuts. The ISM services index rose to 51.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from March, with the price index hitting its highest level since January 2023. Respondents cited more concrete pricing effects of tariffs rather than uncertainty. Meanwhile, Trump announced a 100% tariff on films shot overseas, drawing industry attention.
Tariff Shock Emerges: Retail and Industrial Real Estate Deals See a Wave of Pauses
Although the full impact of tariffs on the commercial real estate market remains to be seen over time, early signs have emerged in the retail and industrial sectors. CBRE experts say retailers and industrial tenants are pausing transaction decisions due to tariff uncertainty, while the office market has only seen isolated cases.
U.S. April Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations, Tariff Impact Not Yet Visible
According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%, and strong hiring in sectors such as healthcare and financial activities. Although tariff policies have taken effect, the employment report is based on mid-April data and does not fully reflect the impact of trade frictions. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has dropped to 37% following the report.
US House Committee Votes to Advance Bill: Proposed Abolition of PCAOB, with SEC to Take Over Audit Oversight
The US House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday advanced a Republican bill by a party-line vote of 30 to 22, aiming to abolish the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB). If enacted into law, the bill would terminate the fees levied on companies and broker-dealers that fund the PCAOB, transfer its existing rules and processes to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and shift to taxpayer-funded oversight. Democratic lawmakers and the PCAOB chair strongly opposed the move, arguing it would weaken investor protections and increase regulatory risks.
U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in Q1: import surge before tariffs drags down GDP
Commerce Department data released Wednesday show Q1 GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%, as companies significantly increased imports before tariffs were announced in April. Consumer spending growth slowed to 1.8%, the lowest since Q2 2023. The core PCE price index rose 3.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Economists warn that if tariffs persist, the economy could stall or even slip into recession.
Tariff Turmoil May Open Doors for Supplier Fraud, Experts Warn
Fraud prevention experts warn that the rapidly changing tariff policies of the Trump administration could trigger global supply chain disruptions, thereby increasing the risk of supplier fraud. Companies rushing to onboard new suppliers to avoid tariff impacts may overlook payment security, providing opportunities for fraudsters. A Trustpair report shows that in 2024, nearly 90% of U.S. companies experienced cyber fraud, with the proportion of supplier fraud rising to nearly 70%.
U.S. consumer expectations plunge by largest margin since 1990 recession
The University of Michigan's April survey shows that the U.S. consumer expectations index has plummeted 32% within the year, the worst since the 1990 recession; the one-year inflation expectation has risen to 6.5%, a new high since 1981. Tariff policies have sparked widespread concern, with consumers pessimistic about employment and income prospects, and economists warn that supply chain disruptions and inflation risks could lead to an economic downturn.
Initial jobless claims rise slightly, labor market remains stable amid tariff shock
U.S. Labor Department data show that initial jobless claims rose slightly to 222,000 in mid-April, with the labor market overall stable, but economists and business groups warn that Trump's tariff policies could push the unemployment rate to around 5% in the coming months and weigh on small business employment.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: China and the US有望达成重大协议，中国为关税最高目标
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Wednesday that he sees the possibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement with China to end the trade war. China currently faces the highest tariffs among US trading partners. Bessent noted that the Trump administration hopes China will provide a timeline and achieve measurable progress in shifting the economy toward consumption-driven growth.